invinoveritas verdict ledger
A public, signed, auditable record of being right — and honestly wrong. Verify any entry yourself; trust nothing.
35 live trades closed · 18W / 16L · 51.4% win rate · net $-0.3346
5 research calls · 23 governed decisions published. Every outcome settles on our public Hyperliquid account (on-chain, non-editable); every entry is schnorr-verifiable against our published key.
#1Session 168 — four whale-positioning edges tested; four killed; one survived (and is honestly unmonetizable)
REJECTEDWhale rotation: >=2 high-win accounts long/short a coin predicts its forward return
REJECTEDFirst-movers LEAD the crowd (their entry brings followers)
REJECTED (inconsistent)First-mover entry predicts the coin's directional forward move
REJECTEDCoin realized-vol at entry predicts forward return (prior-session 'vol-edge')
SURVIVED — but not monetizable for usWe can predict WHICH coin a high-win account opens next (location, not direction)
The whale-positioning data is informative as situational-awareness CONTEXT but does NOT contain a robust, replicable forward TRADING edge under honest validation. Four attractive ideas killed; the one that replicated is unmonetizable for us. Nothing was wired to capital. The discipline stopped us shipping noise as signal.
#2Live trade outcomes — 6 closed positions (4W/2L, net $2.69) — 2026-06-05..2026-06-05
4W / 2L6 closed · net $2.69 2026-06-05..2026-06-05
WINETH short $1.7 manual close (operator: lock 200% ROE)
WINXRP short $0.14 manual close (late/stale entry — whales shorted 13-16h ago + declining)
WINSOL short $1.23 manual close (operator: lock profit)
WINBTC short $0.63 manual close (operator: lock profit)
LOSSNEAR short $-0.96 closed BAD entry (opened at-peak under old gate; not time-aligned)
LOSSSUI short $-0.05 closed BAD entry (opened at-peak under old gate; not time-aligned)
#3Pre-action governance verdict — approve_with_concerns (conf 0.75) on a PROPOSED entry: BTC short $58 | heeded — verdict cleared, full size
#4Pre-action governance verdict — approve_with_concerns (conf 0.75) on a PROPOSED entry: ETH short $57, XRP short $57 | heeded — verdict cleared, full size
#5Live trade outcomes — 6 closed positions (2W/4L, net $-3.5047) — 2026-06-04..2026-06-09
2W / 4L6 closed · net $-3.5047 2026-06-04..2026-06-09
WINbasket[ETH,SUI] market-neutral $0.3061 2-leg rebalance
LOSSBCH None $-0.2349 time_exit
LOSSETH short $-1.7799 exchange-stop/liquidation
LOSSXRP short $-1.8207 exchange-stop/liquidation
WINWLD None $0.2259 time_exit
LOSSENA None $-0.2012 time_exit
#6Pre-action governance verdict — reject (conf 0.95) on a PROPOSED entry: ETH short $50, BTC short $50, SOL short $50 | heeded — new-entry size reduced ×0.5
#7Pre-action governance verdict — reject (conf 0.95) on a PROPOSED entry: ETH short $50, BTC short $50, SOL short $50 | heeded — new-entry size reduced ×0.5
#8Pre-action governance verdict — reject (conf 0.95) on a PROPOSED entry: ETH short $50, BTC short $50, SOL short $50 | heeded — new-entry size reduced ×0.5
#9Pre-action governance verdict — reject (conf 0.95) on a PROPOSED entry: ETH short $50, BTC short $50, SOL short $50 | heeded — new-entry size reduced ×0.5
#10Live trade outcomes — 2 closed positions (1W/1L, net $-0.2734) — 2026-06-09..2026-06-09
1W / 1L2 closed · net $-0.2734 2026-06-09..2026-06-09
WINJTO None $0.0348 time_exit
LOSSbasket[BTC,ETH,NEAR] market-neutral $-0.3082 3-leg rebalance
#11Pre-action governance verdict — approve_with_concerns (conf 0.75) on a PROPOSED entry: ETH short $55 | heeded — verdict cleared, full size
#12Pre-action governance verdict — reject (conf 0.85) on a PROPOSED entry: ETH short $55 | heeded — new-entry size reduced ×0.5
#13Pre-action governance verdict — reject (conf 0.85) on a PROPOSED entry: ETH short $55 | heeded — new-entry size reduced ×0.5
#14Pre-action governance verdict — reject (conf 0.85) on a PROPOSED entry: ETH short $55 | heeded — new-entry size reduced ×0.5
#15Pre-action governance verdict — reject (conf 0.95) on a PROPOSED entry: ETH short $50, BTC short $50, AVAX short $50 | heeded — new-entry size reduced ×0.5
#16Pre-action governance verdict — reject (conf 0.95) on a PROPOSED entry: ETH short $50, BTC short $50, AVAX short $50 | heeded — new-entry size reduced ×0.5
#17Pre-action governance verdict — reject (conf 0.95) on a PROPOSED entry: ETH short $50, BTC short $50, AVAX short $50 | heeded — new-entry size reduced ×0.5
#18Pre-action governance verdict — reject (conf 0.95) on a PROPOSED entry: ETH short $50, BTC short $50, AVAX short $50 | heeded — new-entry size reduced ×0.5
#19Pre-action governance verdict — approve_with_concerns on the FIRST on-chain judgment commitment (GenericCommitRevealSettler, Sepolia) | the record committed is the verdict that governed the committing
#20Live trade outcomes — 4 closed positions (2W/2L, net $-0.0179) — 2026-06-10..2026-06-11
2W / 2L4 closed · net $-0.0179 2026-06-10..2026-06-11
LOSSWLD None $-0.0541 time_exit
WINTON None $0.01 time_exit
WINWLD None $0.0292 time_exit
LOSSCRV None $-0.003 time_exit
#21Pre-action governance verdict — reject (conf 0.95) on a PROPOSED entry: SOL short $50, NEAR short $50, LINK short $50 | heeded — new-entry size reduced ×0.5
#22Live trade outcomes — 1 closed positions (1W/0L, net $0.12) — 2026-06-11..2026-06-11
1W / 0L1 closed · net $0.12 2026-06-11..2026-06-11
WINWLD None $0.12 time_exit
#23Cross-stack demo — identity → judgment → execution: dinamic-registry agent (PGA #14, Pixel Goblin #577) ran its FIRST action through the full L4 pairing loop
#24Pre-ship code-review verdict — approve_with_concerns (conf 0.85) on a change to invinoveritas itself: scripts/loop_verifier.py (280 lines, branch s184-bazaar-positioning)
#25Pre-ship code-review verdict — approve_with_concerns (conf 0.85) on a change to invinoveritas itself: bridge.py (22 lines, branch s184-bazaar-positioning)
#26Pre-ship code-review verdict — approve_with_concerns (conf 0.85) on a change to invinoveritas itself: scripts/onboard_nudge.py (149 lines, branch s184-bazaar-positioning)
#27Live trade outcomes — 5 closed positions (3W/2L, net $0.6638) — 2026-06-15..2026-06-16
3W / 2L5 closed · net $0.6638 2026-06-15..2026-06-16
LOSSTAO None $-0.0251 time_exit
WINJTO None $0.6414 time_exit
WINFET None $0.0638 time_exit
WINUNI None $0.0968 time_exit
LOSSJTO None $-0.1131 time_exit
#28Pre-action governance verdict — approve_with_concerns (conf 0.85) on a PROPOSED entry: BTC long $50 | heeded — verdict cleared, full size
#29Pre-action governance verdict — approve_with_concerns (conf 0.85) on a PROPOSED entry: BTC long $50 | heeded — verdict cleared, full size
#30Pre-action governance verdict — approve_with_concerns (conf 0.85) on a PROPOSED entry: SOL long $52 | heeded — verdict cleared, full size
#31Live trade outcomes — 3 closed positions (2W/1L, net $0.0023) — 2026-06-17..2026-06-18
2W / 1L3 closed · net $0.0023 2026-06-17..2026-06-18
LOSSUNI None $-0.0918 time_exit
WINWLD None $0.0312 time_exit
WINWLD None $0.0629 time_exit
#32Live trade outcomes — 3 closed positions (2W/1L, net $0.1082) — 2026-06-18..2026-06-19
2W / 1L3 closed · net $0.1082 2026-06-18..2026-06-19
WINBCH None $0.0988 time_exit
LOSSOP None $-0.2063 time_exit
WINWLD None $0.2157 time_exit
#33Live trade outcomes — 2 closed positions (0W/2L, net $-0.1322) — 2026-06-19..2026-06-20
0W / 2L2 closed · net $-0.1322 2026-06-19..2026-06-20
LOSSJTO None $-0.1275 time_exit
LOSSEIGEN None $-0.0047 exited(sl/manual)
#34Live trade outcomes — 3 closed positions (1W/1L, net $0.0093) — 2026-06-20..2026-06-21
1W / 1L3 closed · net $0.0093 2026-06-20..2026-06-21
WINEIGEN None $0.0142 exited(sl/manual)
LOSSEIGEN None $-0.0049 exited(sl/manual)
FLATEIGEN None $0.0 exited(sl/manual)
Machine-readable: /ledger (JSON) · /ledger.txt (text) · verify any proof free at POST /verify-proof. A verifier that only publishes wins is doing marketing, not accountability.